· Probability

The odds behind the decision.

Buy now or wait. Refinance or hold. How fast the All-In-One really pays off. Every one of these is a bet on things nobody knows for certain, so the honest answer is a probability, not a promise.

Each tool starts from typical numbers and the historical record, then every assumption is a slider. Disagree with one, move it, and the odds update. The random draws are the same every time, so a change in the answer comes from your change, not from noise. Nothing here is saved or sent anywhere.

· Buy now or wait

What are the odds waiting wins?

Waiting for a better rate is a bet that rates fall more than prices rise, minus the rent you pay meanwhile. Here is that bet with odds on it.

Your purchase today

Home price

Down payment

Rate today

The wait

Rent per month while waiting

What you believe about rates and prices

Where you think rates are headed over the wait

How much rates typically move in a year

Home price growth per year

How much prices typically swing in a year

· The odds

…

Method: rates after the wait are drawn from a bell curve centered on today's rate plus your drift, with the yearly swing you set scaled by the square root of time; 0.8 points is about the typical size of a year-over-year move in the 30-year fixed since 1990. Prices likewise, centered on your growth figure. Four thousand draws. Payments are principal and interest on a 30-year fixed with the same down-payment percentage. Not a forecast and not an offer; rates and programs change without notice.

· Refinance

Will it pay for itself before you move?

The break-even month everyone quotes only matters if you are still in the home when it arrives. This puts a probability on that, from your own best guess.

Loan balance

Current rate

New rate

Closing costs

Your best guess at how long you keep this home

· The odds

…

Both payments are principal and interest on a fresh 30-year term, the way most refinances are written; a shorter remaining term changes the math and is worth a conversation. Estimates only, not an offer of credit.

· All-In-One

How fast does it pay off, honestly?

The All-In-One lives on what is left over each month, and real months are not all the same. This runs the loan fifteen hundred times with a surplus that wobbles the way yours will, and shows the whole range, not one flattering number.

Mortgage balance

All-In-One rate

Left over in a typical month, after everything

How steady is that number?

· The range

…

Illustration, not an offer. The All-In-One Loan is a first-lien home equity line of credit with a variable rate; this holds the rate fixed at the figure you set. The comparison line is a standard 30-year fixed at 6.5% with nothing extra paid. Results depend on income, balances, and spending patterns. APR varies. Subject to credit approval. The All-In-One Loan is a product of CMG Financial (NMLS #1820), offered through EPiQ Lending.

· Questions left?

Ask me directly.

Six quick taps tell you which loan I’d start with, nothing pulled, nothing saved. Or text me and we start there. I read every text myself, usually within minutes during the day. About the odds on your situation, or anything else.

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